Friday, May 15, 2020

"the majority who contract COVID-19 are asymptomatic."

In Conservative Review, Daniel Horowitz provides data from studies of Covid-19 in America. Then, he summarizes the ramifications.
1) Initially, the “experts” used the fear of asymptomatic transmission as a means of pushing for universal lockdown. But that only makes sense if the number of asymptomatic are a minority and we are at the beginning of the transmission phase, in which such lockdown could work. Now we see the opposite is true. The overwhelming majority of those infected are asymptomatic, which grows to an absolute super-majority when you factor in the mildly symptomatic. The fatality rate is therefore very small and very confined to a known population. Thus, it makes no sense to lock down younger and healthier people who overwhelmingly don’t get seriously ill, much less deathly ill, even if they contract the virus.

Moreover, the fact that this has spread so far and wide and most are asymptomatic demonstrates that there is no longer any “spread” to stop and we were months too late in trying to stop it even if we wanted to.

Clearly, this tweet from the World Health Organization did not age well.

World Health Organization (WHO)

Asymptomatic #2019nCoV infection may be rare, and transmission from an asymptomatic person is very rare with other coronaviruses, as we have seen with MERS. Thus, transmission from asymptomatic cases is likely not a major driver of transmission

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11:29 AM - Feb 1, 2020
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2) Now that this virus has already spread far and wide in prisons for months and most are asymptomatic, there is no justification to release prisoners. In fact, not only would this endanger public safety, it is also a greater health concern because they would be releasing a younger, more asymptomatic population into the general population. Coronavirus jailbreak has become such a joke and the threat of death is so low that inmates in L.A. County were caught trying to infect each other in order to obtain their get-out-of-jail free cards.

3) Contact tracing of the entire country is utterly insane. Most people have been spreading this virus while asymptomatic for months. What is left to trace?

4) By going back to normal with basic precautions for most of the population, we will be able to achieve herd immunity much less painfully than previously thought while shielding the more vulnerable population. The threshold of 70% contracting a virus in order to achieve herd immunity is only true for diseases like measles and mumps, which affect the population more or less evenly. But the target of this virus is very lopsided and heterogeneous. According to a recent simulation by European, American, and Brazilian researchers, “Heterogeneous populations require less infections to cross their herd immunity thresholds than homogeneous models would suggest,” possibly as low as 10%. The fact that so many of the more exposed and vulnerable already got it and so many were asymptomatic means we could achieve herd immunity much quicker with fewer lives lost, certainly compared to lockdown.
Read more here.

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