Black Swans, the term coined by Taleb, refers to unexpected, high impact events. What events have happened in your life that had a high impact on your life, but which you failed to predict? Could you have been better prepared for the event? What kept you from being better prepared? Were you relying on a thinking model that lulled you into thinking that such an event would never happen? Was the black swan event a positive or negative event? If negative, did you figure out how to turn it into something positive?
5 comments:
Katrina counts?
I always expected a hurricane. I live in south Louisiana. I bought a home at elevation 20 feet, and was glad to forgo the pleasures of being near the water. The wind, watching trees fall on the roof of the house where I stayed, the eye passing over as it disintegrated, all that I expected.
The aftermath I did not. I moved into this area after Betsy and Camille. People who lived through that those storms all had a special bond, an experience they had no way to share with the others, except to say, "buy candles, buy batteries." We all react differently, but there are some common elements, the story of the storm, the evacuation experience, the crazy media reaction, and the long slog to find a new normal. Everyone has stories.
The lulling that made me not aware of just how much effect such a storm would have was the continual, habitual hyping of every hurricane in the gulf. For twenty some years, I watched the older survivors of big storms go into hurricane panics, and the predicted damage never arrived. The wind blew, the rain fell, the water rose, the water dropped and everyone got back to their lives, after missing a day of work, and maybe being without lights for a day. Recovering from Katrina has been more than five years ongoing, and it's still not done.
swiftone,
Thank you for your comments. You make a number of excellent points.
I got laid off May 24th. Totally wasn't expecting it. It's a curve ball of mammoth proportations. I keep thinking why didn't you spend the last 16.5 years getting more education and a better skill set? See life always throws you stuff even when you think it's all going to be all right. I loved my job. It was hard to be laid off. But I sorta knew things weren't great. SO how do you make this a good thing? I keep thinking preparation would have been the best defense.
Terri,
I am praying that you will find God's will for your life: happiness for you and an avenue for you to share with others your talents and wisdom.
Terri, Please keep me posted on the choices you make, and the results!
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