Thursday, September 19, 2019

What will be Trump's 2020 game plan?

In PJ Media, Stephen Green wargames the electoral college and tries to preview Trump's 2020 game plan.
...bunch of states have signed on to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. If Trump wins the popular vote, he'll carry the entire West Coast (including Hawaii), plus Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New York, and the bulk of New England's ECs. Even being super-generous and lettin+g the Dems hold on to MN in the case of a Trump landslide, look at what the NPV compact could do to the map.

...I would expect that if the election starts looking like a blowout, you'll see an awful lot of blue state assemblies scrambling to see who can pull out of the compact the fastest. Failing that, some well-financed moderate Dem or NeverTrumper might just jump in, in an effort to deny Trump a popular majority.

But back to Trump's expanded battlespace. Playing in places like New Jersey and Oregon is quite the longshot, but unlike any other Republican candidate of recent vintage, Trump is willing to try.

That alone makes me really like his chances -- not just of winning, but of winning bigger than many people expect.
Read more here, including some very interesting graphs.

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