Events that could profoundly influence the 2016 election

Will there be a "black swan" event that radically reshapes America’s 2016 presidential election? Maybe. Austin Bay, writing at the Observer, however, discuses five on-going problems happening now that could have profound impact on the 2016 election.

P1: Puerto Rico’s Economic Crisis This could be the most potent of the P5 because it puts Big Debt in American’s face. It also happens on Barack Obama’s watch. The media will ask candidates what they’re going to do about all the suffering—a predicate to spending more money. But we’ll also hear intelligent people ask just how much debt does Uncle Sam bear? If federal, state and local pensions, entitlements and bond debts are included, the debt load may exceed $60 trillion.

P2: The FBI criminal investigation of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s alleged mishandling of classified national security-related information The investigation has raised serious questions about Ms. Clinton’s integrity and fitness for high office. If the FBI recommends her indictment and/or the indictment of senior aides, then it is decision time for Attorney General Loretta Lynch. Failure to prosecute could seriously undermine morale throughout key defense and intelligence agencies.

P3: Libya 2016 The terror attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, should have been an issue in the 2012 election. Successful lying by key members of the Obama Administration, to include Ms. Clinton, muted Libya 2012. So did CNN debate moderator Candy Crowley when she intervened on Obama’s behalf when Mitt Romney raised the issue. Several Clinton emails obtained by investigators confirm she misled the electorate about Benghazi (A P2 TIE-IN). Libya 2016 serves as shorthand for the Obama Administration’s war on the Islamic State in the Levant (ISIL). U.S. forces are back in Iraq. Syria has shattered and Russia is resurrecting the Assad dictatorship.

P4: South China Sea and North Korea A world away from Libya, China’s power is growing and North Korea tests nuclear weapons. China has built and fortified islands in the South China Sea and claims sovereignty over a vast region. Chinese security forces spar with those of the Philippines, a U.S. ally. The U.S. claims the right of freedom of navigation in the region. China objects—your ships need our permission, Beijing says. A U.S. Navy carrier group is entering the region this week.

P2, P3 and P4 collectively resurrect foreign policy and national defense as major campaign issues. In 2008 candidate Obama promised Smart Diplomacy. Yet Russia’s slow war in eastern Ukraine continues, despite Mr. Obama’s and Ms. Clinton’s “reset” of U.S.-Russia relations. Mr. Obama’s Iran nuclear deal has angered U.S. supporters of Israel. There is a slow revolt among American Jewish voters, once a fixture of the Democratic Party coalition.

Which takes us to:

P5: Mainstream Media Loss of Clout and Credibility
P5 began with the advent of talk radio and the Internet. With proliferating Internet and digital media sources, P5 is in full swing. Mainstream media organizations no longer determine the election’s information agenda.

Read more here.