Looking for Odds of a Contested GOP Convention? Watch Illinois and Missouri.
My biggest pet peeve this week has been when pundits pontificate that Ohio is the only GOP state to watch tonight. These pundits claim that a Trump win in Florida is a foregone conclusion and that Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina are “proportional” states and thus less important. In fact, Illinois and Missouri aren’t proportional — they’re effectively winner-take-all by congressional district. And they’re hugely important: in fact, they could tell us more about the odds of a contested convention than Ohio could.
If Kasich wins Ohio, it’s a close call as to whether that’s good or bad news for Trump’s odds of getting to 1,237 delegates. On one hand, it would deny Trump 66 delegates, which is 5 percent of what’s needed to clinch the nomination. But it could also deny Cruz a one-on-one matchup against Trump, heightening Trump’s chances of winning future winner-take-all states. In other words, Ohio’s outcome tonight might not shed a lot of light on the odds of chaos in Cleveland.
However, Illinois and Missouri will tell us a lot. If Trump sweeps both states by large margins and wins in all 26 of their congressional districts, he’ll win 121 delegates — more than he’ll win in Florida. However, if Cruz can win at least 10 of their congressional districts, it will be a positive indicator for his competitiveness against Trump in future primaries and significantly heighten the odds of a contested convention.
Five Thirty Eight's superb analysts update their analysis every few minutes all night long.
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