Consider the statistics for oil: In 2008, U.S. production slumped below 5 million barrels per day, the lowest it had been since the 1940s; by the end of 2013, it exceeded 8 million barrels per day, the highest in more than two decades. By 2016, production is projected to reach or exceed the historic high of 9.6 million barrels per day set in 1970. The rise in natural gas production has been even steeper. In 2007, the United States produced 1.3 trillion cubic feet of shale natural gas; in 2011, it produced 8 trillion cubic feet. That figure is projected to reach 31.9 trillion cubic feet by 2025 and to keep climbing in subsequent decades.
Every oil price hike for the past four decades, including those in 1973, 1979, 1991, 2001, and 2008, was followed shortly afterwards by a sharp rise in American unemployment.
It is no surprise that, as University of California, San Diego economic historian James D. Hamilton has documented, ten of the eleven postwar U.S. recessions were preceded by sharp increases in oil prices.
To make matters worse, several of the OPEC member countries have a track record of using their oil profits to support activities inimical to American interests. Saudi individuals and “charities” have long funded jihadist groups. As recently as December 2009, the U.S. State Department noted (in one of the cables published by Wikileaks) that “donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide” and that the country “remains a critical financial support base” for Al Qaeda, the Taliban, Hamas, and other terrorist groups. The rulers of Iran, the cartel’s second-largest oil producer, are the great patrons of the Hezbollah terrorist organization, and are using their oil profits to fund the development of nuclear weapons.
Do we have fuels that can replace OPEC? Yes, methanol! Zubrin writes,
Whereas cellulosic ethanol is sometimes trumpeted as the fuel of the future, methanol is not some futuristic dream touted by researchers seeking funding. Rather, it is an established chemical commodity, with a global annual production capacity of almost 33 billion gallons. It has recently been selling for around $1.50 per gallon. Taking into account methanol’s qualities as a fuel — it contains about half the energy of gasoline per gallon but has a higher octane rating — its price of $1.50 is the equivalent of gasoline selling for around $2.50. To put it another way, at current prices, a dollar of pure methanol used as fuel can get a car 30 percent farther down the road than a dollar of gasoline. Clearly, at current prices, methanol is very competitive with gasoline.
Furthermore, the resources available to support expanded methanol production are vast. In contrast to gasoline, which can only be made economically from oil, methanol can readily be made from any carbon-containing material — including oil, natural gas, coal, garbage, or any kind of biomass. That means that America’s huge advantage in coal reserves, its vastly expanding natural gas production, and its enormous agricultural resources could be harnessed not just to supplement but to fully replace the nation’s current foreign oil needs and support the growing demands of an expanding economy for decades. It also means that access to the resources necessary for the production of methanol cannot be restricted by the actions of the OPEC cartel.
Methanol also has environmental advantages over gasoline. It burns cleaner, causing much less particulate pollution. It is also safer, being much less likely to cause a fire in the event of a crash, and its fumes contain none of gasoline’s mixture of carcinogens, which harm public health. While, unlike ethanol, methanol is toxic even in small doses and not drinkable, it is not as toxic as gasoline. In fact, the main active ingredient in most windshield wiper fluids is methanol, but because it is readily biodegradable, it has been handled by drivers and released onto roads worldwide in vast quantities for decades without any health or environmental impacts.
But can vehicles currently running on gasoline easily be switched over to methanol? Yes, and very quickly. The large majority of cars sold in the United States today (and for at least the past five years), including most General Motors and Ford vehicles, have been equipped with computers and chromated fuel lines that make them potentially capable of using methanol for fuel. If provided with the right software, and with methanol-impervious seals (costing less than fifty cents per vehicle) for their fuel system, every new car sold in the United States could be a fully “flexible fuel vehicle” — able to run equally well on methanol, ethanol, or gasoline.
So, why don't car makers invest in flex fuel? Zubrin explains that
the owners of the biggest U.S. car companies have interests overwhelmingly aligned not with the automakers or their customers but with the oil cartel. At minimum, this represents a very serious conflict of interest. Barring a change in circumstances, it is unlikely the car companies will take actions that would imperil OPEC’s control of the market.
Zubrin also explains in detail how the Environmental Protection Agency stifles the possibility of methanol competing with oil. So, what is the answer to OPEC's stranglehold on transportation fuels? Zubrin thinks
The solution lies in a relatively simple policy proposal: auto manufacturers should be required by law to have a true flex-fuel capability — the capability to use any combination of gasoline, methanol, or ethanol — activated in the new cars they sell.There is a bill before Congress to do just that.
What would be the result of increased competition? Zubrin asserts,
the rise of competition would mean the end of OPEC’s outsized geopolitical influence. It would slash transportation costs, igniting a global economic boom. It would leave the world less vulnerable to disruptions in the price of oil. And it would greatly reduce the money propping up undemocratic regimes that support and promote terrorism. It would be, in short, a victory for peace, prosperity, and freedom.
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