Epidemiologists at baseball games

From Open Blogger Buck Throckmorton in the Ace of Spades blog:

Three world renowned epidemiologists – Abel, Baker, and Charlie - were given tickets to the New York Yankees season-opening series against the Orioles.

GAME 1
Aaron Judge hit a home-run in the 8th inning that proved to be the game-winner. A fellow named “Dog” sitting in front of the three epidemiologists said to his son, “At this pace, Aaron Judge is going to hit 162 home runs this season.” Abel overheard, and inquired how Dog came up with that figure. Dog jokingly said “162 games per year. One home run per game.” To which Baker replied, “Brilliant analysis. Which Ivy did you go to?” Dog replied that he was a union electrician and his comment was an old joke among baseball fans. “No, no” replied Charlie, “that is PHD-level analysis.” The three epidemiologists then conferred among themselves, and taking into account that players sometimes take days off or miss games, they proclaimed that Aaron Judge was going to hit between 135 and 160 home runs this year. Dog rolled his eyes and said Judge would be lucky to break 40.

GAME 2
Aaron Judge hit two homers in game #2, including another home run in the 8th that proved to be the game-winner. The epidemiologists conferred in the 9th inning and realized that they had to adjust their models. Abel pulled out his calculator and declared that according to his model, Judge will double his home run output every game, therefore in game #3 he’ll hit four home runs, in game #4 he’ll hit eight home runs, etc. By this calculation, Abel boldly proclaimed that Aaron Judge will hit more than two-octillion home runs this year.

Baker proclaimed the brilliance of Abel’s model, but declared that his own model is a little more conservative. Per Baker, Aaron Judge’s home run output was increasing linearly, therefore Judge would hit 3 home runs in game #3, four home runs in game #4, etc. By this calculation, Aaron Judge would hit 162 home runs in game #162, and his total home run output for the year would be 13,203.

Charlie stated that his model assumed Judge would continue to hit on average 1.5 home runs per game. Therefore he projected that over 162 games Judge would hit 243 home runs. Charlie warned, however, that models must first and foremost bring projections that suit the needs of their benefactors and grantors.

Dog turned around and said “Guys, no one has ever even hit 75 home runs in a season. If Judge hits 50 home runs it will be an epic season for him. Come on.” Abel replied with a dismissive “Thank you” and added “we wouldn’t expect you to understand PHD-level modeling.” The three epidemiologists then boldly proclaimed to Dog and everyone around them that Judge’s homer total would be in a range between 243 home runs and two-octillion home runs.

GAME 3
The Orioles intentionally walked Aaron Judge in his first three at-bats, but they pitched to him in his fourth at-bat in the 8th inning, and he once again delivered a home run. In the 9th inning the epidemiologists were buzzing with excitement to learn that by shutting down Aaron Judge via the intentional-walk, the exponential growth of his home run production could be slowed.

They quickly huddled and then boldly announced, “To succeed in the battle against Aaron Judge, it is necessary to intentionally walk him in every at bat. 100% total shutdown!” Dog turned around in disbelief and said, “Guys, get real, if Judge is batting in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game with the bases loaded, YOU LOSE if you intentionally walk him. Do you understand that? You. Lose.”

Abel, Baker, and Charlie dismissively shook their heads at Dog, then got up to depart and declared that they were glad to have had the opportunity to educate him over these past three days.

ONE WEEK LATER
Dog is watching TV when it is announced that a new Chinese virus has just been declared a global pandemic, and that the President has appointed a team of renowned epidemiologists to lead the country through this crisis. Abel, Baker, and Charlie will be granted full authority to do whatever it takes to stop the virus, including command and control of the US economy as well as any enforcement actions necessary to stop the spread of the new virus.

Dog looked at his wife and said “Oh my god, we are so screwed.”

“The virus?” she replied.

“No,” he said, “the epidemiologists.”