Donald Trump has at least five strong historical arguments for his re-election.
One, he is an incumbent. Incumbent presidents have won 14 of 19 re-election bids since 1900.
The few who lost did not enjoy positive approval ratings. In a Gallup poll from earlier this month, Trump enjoyed his highest approval rating since his inauguration, squeezing out a 49 percent favorable rating vs. 50 percent unfavorable.
Two, the public perception of the economy usually determines any presidential election -- as incumbents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and Herbert Hoover learned the hard way. Currently, the U.S. is enjoying low inflation, low interest rates, positive economic growth, near-record-low unemployment, rising workers' wages, and record gas and oil production.
Three, unpopular optional wars derail incumbent presidencies.
...Four, scandals also can destroy a presidency, as when Watergate forced the resignation of Richard Nixon.
Five, the opponent matters. Barry Goldwater was caricatured as an out-of-touch extremist and made incumbent Lyndon Johnson's election a sure thing in 1964. George McGovern's radicalism ensured that Richard Nixon would be re-elected in 1972. Ronald Reagan was assured of a second term by Walter Mondale's anemic candidacy.
Hanson then goes on to assess Trump against each of those five points and concludes,
Add it all up, and if one looks at 2020 dispassionately and historically, the election appears to be Trump's to lose.Read more here.
No comments:
Post a Comment