China is a production-based economic model, they do not have the ability, or wealth, to consume their own durable goods production; they rely on exports.Read more here.
The U.S. is a more balanced economy; we consume 80% of our own production. We are self-sustaining, China is not.
Without a market to sell their products, the Chinese economy cannot survive.
Conversely, China has focused so intensely on durable-goods manufacturing, their consumable goods market (food) is dependent; they cannot feed themselves. The U.S. can survive without exporting food, China cannot survive without importing food. The U.S. economy can survive without importing durable goods; the Chinese economy cannot survive without exporting durable goods. This is the unavoidable trade reality. As a consequence, President Trump has all the factual leverage.
Again, the key dynamic: The U.S. economy can survive without importing durable goods; the Chinese economy cannot survive without exporting durable goods. This is the unavoidable trade reality.
Now, frame that in a similar way for NAFTA.
The Canadian and Mexican economy (due to NAFTA) cannot survive without importing cheap durable goods from China to use in their assembly-based economies, and then trans-ship into the U.S market. However, the U.S. economy can survive, it can actually expand BIGLY, without accepting trans-shipped assembled goods from Mexico and Canada
Put simply, without NAFTA, the assembly processes just moves INTO the U.S because the market *is* the United States. We are the $20 trillion customer. We hold the leverage.
This blog is looking for wisdom, to have and to share. It is also looking for other rare character traits like good humor, courage, and honor. It is not an easy road, because all of us fall short. But God is love, forgiveness and grace. Those who believe in Him and repent of their sins have the promise of His Holy Spirit to guide us and show us the Way.
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
China's unavoidable trade reality
Sundance writes at The Conservative Treehouse,
Labels:
trade
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