XI and Putin

Helen Raleigh writes,

Both Xi and Putin face pressure from the West over their aggressions and human rights violations. Both wish to do away with America’s leadership, and the liberal world order America helped establish. Undoubtedly, this shared goal has brought China and Russia closer.

Xi and Putin don’t fully trust each other, partially due to the long history of disputes and betrayal between the two nations. In addition, they have different policy goals based on their nations’ strengths and weaknesses.

Xi doesn’t see Russia as an equal partner but as a pawn to realize his vision for China, to replace the United States as the only superpower in a Sino-centered and autocracy-friendly new world. While China is Russia’s largest trade partner, Russia amounts to less than 2 percent of China’s total trade volume.

Xi has no intention of helping Russia become an economic powerhouse. According to Jon Yuan Jiang, a Chinese-Russian relations analyst in Australia, an economically weak but militarily aggressive Russia suits Xi’s vision. He prefers that the Russian military keeps the west, primarily the United States, occupied and draws attention from Beijing’s geopolitical expansion. At the same time, he hopes that Russia’s economic dependency on China will deter Putin from challenging China’s dominance.

Putin has no delusions that a new world order dominated by China will not bode well for Russia in the long run. His goal is to return Russia to what he sees as the glorious past of the USSR by all measures, including territories, military strength, and economic power. Putin is unsatisfied that Russia is a junior partner in the Sino-Russia economic relationship, and he recognizes that Russia’s economic dependency on China is a barrier to his goal.

There are three things the Biden administration should do to exploit the friction between China and Russia. First, the Biden administration must reverse its energy policies that have benefited Russia.

Since coming into office, President Biden has imposed ruinous energy policies, including establishing a moratorium on leasing federal lands for oil and gas production and rescinding the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have added 830,000 barrels of oil a day to the world market. These policies resulted in skyrocketing gas prices, hurting U.S. consumers and economic recovery while creating a windfall for Russia, and providing Putin the financial resources to cause nuisance worldwide.

The second thing the Biden administration should do is focus on economic sanction tools that will drive China and Russia apart. Suppose Russia invades Ukraine, and the West responds by cutting Russia from the international banking system. In that case, China may want to put a distance between itself and Russia because China’s export-oriented economy is heavily dependent on such a system. Xi will have little appetite to jeopardize China’s economic growth to save Russia.

Finally, the United States should avoid outcompeting Russia in weapon exports in specific strategic markets. Russia’s economy is about the size of Italy, and it relies on two types of exports: energy and weapons. Putin has tried to diversify Russia’s economy to reduce Russia’s economic dependency on China, even if it means irritating China.

As long as India maintains a good relationship with the United States, the United States should not try to outcompete Russia in weapon exports in India. Russia’s continuing weapon exports to India naturally limit Moscow and Beijing’s cooperation.

Read more here: https://thefederalist.com/2022/02/18/china-and-russia-are-forming-a-bond-one-the-u-s-would-be-wise-to-exploit/