"Joe Biden has sown the wind. Now we await the whirlwind."

Noah Rothman believes

We Will All Pay for Joe Biden’s ‘Minor Incursion’ Mistake!

The fruits of what one analyst feared was Biden’s policy of “sleepwalking into a reset with Russia” are now ripening. Far too many eerie indications suggest that Russia’s buildup of troops along Ukraine’s border is no bluff. The time has come for the West to not just cajole but compel Moscow to abandon its designs on that country by raising the costs of such an adventure to unacceptable levels, lest it risk a new land war in Europe and all the risks to Western security that would entail. But Joe Biden has not done that. Not only has the president failed to deter Putin, he has communicated—in terms no practitioner of statecraft would fail to recognize—that the West lacks the will to stop Putin from doing his worst.

“It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do,” Biden ruminated. “But if they actually do what they’re capable of doing with the forces amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine.” With this, Biden exposed deep divisions within the Atlantic Alliance over precisely how or even whether to respond to a calibrated violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. The reporters present picked up on the permission structure Biden had erected around a deniable invasion of Ukraine and asked the president to clarify his remarks. The clarification was worse than the original comments.

“Are you saying that a minor incursion by Russia into Ukrainian territory would not lead to the sanctions that you have threatened?” one reporter asked. “That’s how it did sound like, didn’t it?” Biden acknowledged, suggesting he was gearing up to issue a more unequivocal ultimatum. But nothing unequivocal was forthcoming. “So, the question is, if it’s a—something significantly short of a significant invasion,” Biden continued. “It’s very important that we keep everyone in NATO on the same page,” he said. “There are differences in NATO as to what countries are willing to do depending on what happens.” The president went on to note that harsh sanctions against Russia impose economic costs on Europe and America, too, and he implied that the Alliance would fracture over whether to punish Moscow if Russia’s aggression took a form more familiar to observers of geopolitics.

The president’s words and actions carry more weight than any half-hearted statement walking them back. Courtesy of his performance in Afghanistan, Putin has all the evidence he needs to conclude that Joe Biden will blink in defending American interests against an aggressor if he thinks the costs of such an effort are too high to bear. Biden has exposed the very real and now fully confirmed tensions within the Atlantic Alliance over how to respond to Russian aggression, if there is any response at all. All the tough talk in the world cannot undo that. Joe Biden has sown the wind. Now, we await the whirlwind.

Read more here: https://www.commentary.org/noah-rothman/we-will-all-pay-for-joe-bidens-terrible-mistake/