Out of weakness or strength?

Gordon Chang writes,

China, after the biggest boom in history, is heading into what could end up as the biggest debt crisis in history.

And why are China's severe economic problems relevant to us? Because for more than three decades the Communist Party has primarily based its legitimacy on the continual delivery of prosperity. And without prosperity, the only remaining basis of legitimacy is nationalism.

Naval Marines of China's People's Liberation Army. (Image source: U.S. Marine Corps)

China's militant nationalism is creating friction in an arc of nations from India in the south to South Korea in the north. Let us focus on the Philippines and Japan.

There has been a noticeable increase in the tempo of China's territorial incursions during the last year. This uptick has generally coincided with the elevation of Xi Jinping as China's new ruler in November 2012.

I believe we should be careful speaking of "Beijing this" or "Beijing that," but should be looking instead at the factional messiness inside the Communist Party and realizing that the People's Liberation Army is now the Party's most powerful faction.

Xi became China's supreme leader because he appealed to all factions, in large part because he had no faction. He was, in short, the least unacceptable candidate. And because he still has no identifiable faction, he cannot afford to offend the generals and admirals, who, in my view have been driving the bus for some time.

And this leads us to the central question in Sino-U.S. ties today: How are we going to develop good relations with a China that, out of weakness or strength, is roiling the world?

Chinese leaders do not distrust us because they have insufficient contact with us. They distrust us because they see themselves as the protector of an ideology threatened by free societies.

The second thing we get wrong about China is that we believe that it is safe to ignore periodic Chinese threats to incinerate our cities and wage war on us, like the reports that appeared in state media in October 2013 boasting how Chinese submarines can launch missiles with nuclear warheads that can kill tens of millions of Americans.

Bad things happen when your adversary does not respect you.

The third thing we get wrong about China is that we think is it inadvisable to call the Chinese out in public.

Let us all remember, World War II started not on the plains of Europe in 1939 but near Beijing two years before.

We live in an era defined by the absence of major war, but this peace may not last. At this moment, we do not know whether a Chinese political system in turmoil will drive the country to become the aggressor of the 21st century, but we should be prepared.

We live in consequential times.

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