Will it be about Trump's self-inflicted wounds, or is it just about the demographics of Wisconsin? Nate Cohn of the New York Times believes it will be about the latter, unless Trump gets less than 35% of the vote. "His problem in Wisconsin is mainly about the state's demographics, not self-inflicted wounds," Cohn writes for the Upshot blog. "Even a 10-percentage-point loss there wouldn't necessarily indicate any shift against him." What people are forgetting is that Wisconsin has looked troublesome for Trump from the get-go.
Among other things, Wisconsin has a relatively high percentage of well-educated people, as well as religious ones, two demographic factors that don't bode well for Trump. Expect Ted Cruz to win Tuesday when the race is called. Those looking for genuine signs of trouble for Trump should instead keep an eye on his percentage of the vote. He's expected to get 35%. "If he falls short, he has lost ground because of momentum, not demographics," writes Cohn.
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