Wednesday, March 04, 2015

Obama outsmarted by Netanyahu

Dick Morris lauds Netanyahu's brilliant reframing of the debate about a deal with Iran.
But Netanyahu changed all that, by making the issue of the agreement’s expiration date the key objection to the treaty. He was quite right that the expiration of a treaty banning nuclear weapons is tantamount to an invitation to proceed with development. That’s an argument we all can understand. It defies logic to invest in a 10- or 15-year deal with as implacable and stubborn a foe as Islamist Iran. A ban must last as long as the offensive regime itself remains in power and does not modify its behavior.

Indeed, by tying the ban on nuclear weapons to Iran’s international conduct in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, Netanyahu created a framework for what should be U.S. policy toward Iran. While President Obama will not accept this linkage, undoubtedly a new Republican president would.

Bibi’s speech ties Obama’s hands — he now would face almost certain congressional censure and backlash if he were to sign a deal with any expiration date on it. Netanyahu’s argument is irrefutable. No congressman can ignore it.

...Just as Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev could not go back and claim his Cuban missile adventure was wise, just as British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain couldn’t reach back to justify his appeasement when German tanks rolled through Poland, Obama and Clinton’s Iran policy will be an evident failure or success by the 2016 election.

Netanyahu has redefined the debate so that a deal with an expiration date or a sunset clause will have to be considered a failure. The logic is so clear.

If Iran actually explodes a nuclear weapon or clearly has achieved the status of “threshold nuclear power” or has agreed to a deal with a time limit, it will be obvious that Obama and Clinton’s negotiating strategy was naive and that they were had by the Ayatollah.

This situation is fraught with peril, in particular for Clinton’s candidacy. There will be no room for speculation as to whether her policies as secretary of State succeeded or failed. The outcome will be obvious to us all to see.
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