Middle East realities and players

Yaakov Lappin writes at Gatestone Institute, that

According to Israel's Home Front Defense Minister, Gilad Erdan, one out of every 10 homes in Lebanon now has a rocket launcher or Hezbollah weapons stored in it, Erdan said. Civilian homes, he said, are constructed in southern Lebanon in a way that allows the roof to open up for the firing of a rocket at Israel.

An increasing number of Hezbollah's projectiles, Erdan cautioned, are guided, accurate weapons, with which the terror organization will seek to strike Israeli national infrastructure sites, such as electricity production centers.

If the number of rockets and missiles possessed by Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas and Islamic Jihad are added up, he added, the number reached is 200,000.

However, the Hezbollah fighters are involved in fighting a civil war in Lebanon against Sunnis.

Hezbollah is heavily armed, more so than most Western countries, but it is also deterred by Israel's firepower. Additionally, its main focus today is on fulfilling the orders of its masters in Tehran and fighting in the Syrian civil war on the side of the Assad regime, a move that has provoked the wrath of Sunni jihadis. This change was noted in recent days by Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, who stated: "To those who are not yet aware, there is already a civil war in Lebanon. [The Sunni] Global Jihad, which has infiltrated Lebanon and is attacking Hezbollah, is blowing car bombs in [the south Beirut Hezbollah stronghold of] Dahia, and is firing rockets at Dahia and the Beka'a Valley [in northern Lebanon, where Hezbollah is also based]."

Israel must treat the whole country of Lebanon as its enemy, not fight guerilla counter terrorism battles.

It is impossible to defeat guerrilla forces, Eiland argued; but if the enemy and its territory are defined as a hostile state, victory becomes possible once again. "In 2006," he said, "we tried to do something impossible by hitting rocket launchers. If tomorrow there is a third Lebanon war and if we try to do the same thing, the result will be worse. We and Hezbollah have improved tactically."

"If war does break out," he added, "treating Lebanon as an enemy would end the conflict in three days, not three weeks," Eiland predicted. "This entails bombing bridges and other state-affiliated targets, though staying clear of civilian sites like schools and hospitals," he stressed. "It is not right for us to accept the idea of fighting low-intensity counter-terrorism conflicts. We should move to an interstate conflict system."