Thursday, December 27, 2012

Analyzing the 2012 election

Without writing even one unnecessary word, Michael Barone writes in National Review a concise analysis of the 2012 election. Turnout was the problem. Turnout is "a measure of organization but also of spontaneous enthusiasm." Obama slipped in this area, but Romney slipped even more, failing to engender a warm, enthusiastic following.
Yet examination of election returns and exit polls indicates that the Obama campaign turned out voters where it really needed them. That enabled him to carry Florida by one point, Ohio by three points, Virginia by four points, and Colorado and Pennsylvania by five points. Without those states, he would have gotten only 243 electoral votes and would now be planning his presidential library.
Still, Barone has a word of caution for Obama and the Democrats:
In reality, Obama’s vote and percentage went down. Considering what happened in Bush’s second term, that suggests a course of caution and wariness for the reelected president and his party.
Go here to read more of Barone's top notch analysis:

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