I just heard Iowa broadcaster Steve Deace give the results of the 2008 and 2012 final polls in Iowa. The winner of 2008 was Mike Huckabee. Some polls had him as winning, but none came close to what his winning margin actually was (9 points). In 2012 Rick Santorum won, but none of the polls predicted it. The metrics of the Iowa caucuses have not changed. Most people come to the caucuses with at least one back-up preference. If they see that their number one choice is not going to win, they engage in horse trading to try to make sure their second choice wins. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are neck and neck in Iowa. Cruz is either the favorite or second choice of most Iowa Republican voters. Cruz has far and away the best organization. He has been doing the one-on-one retail politics Iowans require.
The largest subset of Republican voters are faithful Catholics and born again evangelical Christians. In 2008 those voters comprised 62% of Republican caucus voters, and in 2012 58%. Ted Cruz is an evangelical Christian. Donald Trump is pro-abortion and proud of the fact that his wife has posed nude for magazines.
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