What percent is necessary to win the 2016 election?

Ace of Spades points out that, like Sarah Palin in 2008, Donald Trump has locked down a good 25 percent of Republican primary voters. Ace believes both of them should have, at some point, made an effort to reach out to the Republican Middle Class/upwardly mobile/Professional Class as represented by people like Britt Hume and Megyn Kelly of Fox News (Megyn will once again be the moderator of the next GOP debate on January 28, just days before the Iowa primary).

Trump is pushing a lot of the same buttons that Palin did, and creating minority of people who are intensely passionate about him, while rendering him unacceptable to a majority.

Trump is pushing a lot of the same buttons that Palin did, and creating minority of people who are intensely passionate about him, while rendering him unacceptable to a majority.
ox's Bret Baier and Chris Wallace will also return for a second time to moderate along with Kelly. The three anchors moderated the first GOP debate on Aug. 6. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Megyn Kelly and Brit Hume are both avatars of the right-leaning Upper Middle Class -- a very important cadre for the GOP.

When you're alienating an important, large, and very influential part of the party -- and this particular cadre makes up 90% of those who man the right's communications and theorizing positions -- you're doing so at what I don't even think can be called a "risk," because "risk" implies there's only a chance you'll suffer from it.

You will suffer for it. It's guaranteed.

...My Palin comparison was made to illustrate the following point: If you have minority of 25% in your corner, and they absolutely love you, why would you just keep flattering that significant-but-far-from-majority cohort while also insulting/embarrassing/alienating the other 26% you absolutely need to win an election?

And I see Trump doing this. He's got 25% in the bank -- in the bank. Locked up. Locked down.

And so does he begin to take that base of support, and begin conquering new territory, recruiting new warriors for his army?

So yes, Trump will automatically win the Republican diehards who will vote for any candidate to stop another four years of Democrat misrule.

And that will put him at, say, 31-33%.

And then what?

And then what?

People may say "Oh he's got time to work on the next 18%," but the problem is not just that he's not working on those right now (which could be excused as a good prioritization, given that he's in a primary and hasn't won this thing yet, not even close), it's that on a weekly basis he actively insults and embarrasses them and pushes them closer and closer to the point where they just decide they will not vote for Donald Trump, ever.

...First impressions, and image, Trump would be the first to tell you, count for an awful lot.

At some point I stopped believing that Palin ever could chase anyone but the 25% who liked her, or even had the diligence or courage to attempt venturing out into new territory.

Every week, Trump gives me the same crawly feeling: This guy just doesn't have the smarts, or the stones, to move beyond his comfort zone of the people he's already got in the bag.

Now I don't know when Trump should begin actively courting those outside his base of support.

But I can tell you when he should stop embarrassing them.

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