Victor Davis Hanson's analysis on Syria today is so good, I think I will break it into three posts. Here is what he wrote about outcomes:
Outcomes: There are endless outcome scenarios. Let us list just a few of them:a) Assad is killed or flees; chaos erupts: Somalia, Sudan.
b) Assad is killed or flees; Islamists seize power: Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran.
c) Assad is killed or flees, militias ruin the country: Libya.
d) Assad sticks it out and wins: Syria reverts to a worse form of pre-2011.
e) Assad and the insurgents keep endlessly fighting: Afghanistan.
f) Assad is killed or flees; moderates take over: a temporary version of Iraq
g) Russia intervenes with supplies and a no-fly zone: who knows?
h) Hezbollah attacks U.S. interests: Obama does what?
i) Iran sends missiles and terrorists at U.S. assets: Obama does what?
j) Assad and Hezbollah launch their missiles at Israel: Israel responds.
k) Assad comes to the peace table and agrees to an international brokered settlement.
l) Assad is killed or flees, and the UN and “international community” occupy the country.
I believe that the few good scenarios are improbable and the far more bad ones far more likely.
None of us like Bashar Assad. His demise would in theory weaken our enemies like Iran and Hezbollah and be a proper punishment for decades of Assad regime murdering and slaughter. But I don’t how this administration, at this particular time, and with its changing rationales, has the knowledge to make Syria a more pro-American or better place, the savvy to win Congress, the American people, and allies to its cause, or the competency and will to carry out its own plans. Rethinking the intervention, and trying something different than bombing because of ill-advised Obama red lines is the more sober and ethical course.
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