Thursday, November 22, 2018

What we must do to contain Iran

In the American Thinker, Brandon J. Weichert writes,
...Beginning with Desert Storm, the United States spent the last 30 years running the biggest (failed) social experiment in the world: trying to democratize the Middle East to create long-term "stability." Unfortunately, all of America's military interventions there – each one escalating in size and scope – have done little to quell the unrest. In fact, American interventions have only worsened the instability in the region. With the old order broken, the region appears to be transitioning away from the Sunni- and Israel-dominated balance of power toward a new Iranian order inimical to American interests.

...Iran, like North Korea, has long been considered a rogue state with malicious nuclear weapons ambitions. Despite their continual calls for "Death to America!" and "Death to Israel!," the Obama administration made an ill-advised executive agreement with the mullahs of Iran that effectively allowed Iran a path to acquiring nuclear weapons. The Obama deal then normalized the country with the outside world. Basically, Obama legitimized the virulently anti-American, revisionist regime in Iran – at the expense of American allies in Israel and throughout the Sunni Arab world.

...What few acknowledge is that the North Koreans came to the negotiating table because of the increasing pressure that the Trump administration placed on China. Trump used tripolar diplomacy (among the United States, China, and North Korea) to bring North Korea to heel. Just as China is North Korea's most important partner, Russia is Iran's most important ally. Thus, Trump must replay his strategic gambit of using tripolar diplomacy to prevent a seemingly implacable rogue state – this time Iran – from threatening the world.

Reaching out to Russia is something the president has been prevented from doing, thanks to the partisan hackery of Trump's opponents in Washington. According to these partisans, Trump colluded with Russian intelligence to steal the 2016 election (a claim that remains unproven), therefore any diplomatic overture to Russia is politically toxic for Trump.

While it might harm Washington's ego to treat Moscow as an equal partner in world affairs, the only way to mollify the threat posed by Iran's nuclear program – without a major war against Iran (and absent another silver bullet to use on Iran, like the Stuxnet cyber-attack) – is to grant Russia the respect Putin believes he and his country deserve. Thanks to the restrictive sanctions regime that President Trump has imposed on Russia, the United States has leverage. By dangling the prospect of a grand bargain between Moscow and Washington over key disagreements, the United States would likely be able to get Russia to work with it on ending the threat posed by Iran.

Life in a multipolar world order is complex; often enemies must work together to balance against greater, shared threats (such as the case with Iran) while, at times, pursuing shared opportunities. Let's not miss this opportunity out of moral squeamishness, pride, or misplaced partisan rancor.
Read more here.

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