Monday, April 15, 2013

Victor Davis Hanson on the threat from North Korea

Historian Victor Davis Hanson on what this latest confrontation with North Korea reveals about us:

it reveals the United States as a sort of impotent and neurotic busybody that eventually offers concessions and pays bribes in direct proportion to its serial announcements that it has quit doing just that.

What factors contribute to the likelihood of North Korea starting something?

Kim Jung-un’s much publicized youth and inexperience, the belated assertiveness of untried South Korean president Park Geun-hye, and the perception of an underwhelming U.S. president, secretary of State, and secretary of Defense all are force-multipliers that increase the likelihood of conflict.

Remember Bill Whittle's video he posted a few days ago: our intellectual arrogance convinces us that "they" think like we do, and all we have to do is offer some appeasement. Hanson again:

If it came to a war, China would probably figure that rivals Japan and South Korea would be damaged, materially or economically; North Korea would probably survive; Taiwan would be warned; America would face huge costs of all sorts; a horrified Europe would sermonize and watch; and an unscathed China would fill the resulting economic, security, and political regional vacuum. Insane thinking? Perhaps — but not therein unlikely.

This may be the most significant Victor Davis Hanson piece I have read. I urge you to read it. He concludes,

do not assume that China is working for peace, that war is just too unprofitable to break out, that South Korea is well-integrated with its allies, that concerned parties listen to the U.S., or that an unthinkable and nihilistic war could neither be won nor lost.

Repeating conventional wisdom does not make it true.

Hanson's piece is here: http://pjmedia.com/victordavishanson/north-korean-mythologies/?singlepage=true

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