Tuesday, June 26, 2018

China's unavoidable trade reality

Sundance writes at The Conservative Treehouse,
China is a production-based economic model, they do not have the ability, or wealth, to consume their own durable goods production; they rely on exports.

The U.S. is a more balanced economy; we consume 80% of our own production. We are self-sustaining, China is not.

Without a market to sell their products, the Chinese economy cannot survive.

Conversely, China has focused so intensely on durable-goods manufacturing, their consumable goods market (food) is dependent; they cannot feed themselves. The U.S. can survive without exporting food, China cannot survive without importing food. The U.S. economy can survive without importing durable goods; the Chinese economy cannot survive without exporting durable goods. This is the unavoidable trade reality. As a consequence, President Trump has all the factual leverage.

Again, the key dynamic: The U.S. economy can survive without importing durable goods; the Chinese economy cannot survive without exporting durable goods. This is the unavoidable trade reality.

Now, frame that in a similar way for NAFTA.

The Canadian and Mexican economy (due to NAFTA) cannot survive without importing cheap durable goods from China to use in their assembly-based economies, and then trans-ship into the U.S market. However, the U.S. economy can survive, it can actually expand BIGLY, without accepting trans-shipped assembled goods from Mexico and Canada

Put simply, without NAFTA, the assembly processes just moves INTO the U.S because the market *is* the United States. We are the $20 trillion customer. We hold the leverage.
Read more here.

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