Sunday, November 29, 2015

Who are women going to vote for?

After I read the Chateau Heartiste piece on this being the Golden Age for Charismatic Jerkboys, I Googled all the latest polls for a breakdown of voters by gender. I wanted to see how many of Trump voters are women. None of the polls have that information. Yet, when the actual election takes place, we get that information immediately.

I went to the best number-crunching website, Five Thirty Eight. They did not have that information either, but they did have this:
Are single women showing up as likely voters? Single women have become a bedrock Democratic constituency, and if Clinton is the nominee, and if Planned Parenthood battles remain in the news, the percentage of single women in the electorate could rise above the difference-making threshold. In 2007, about 50 million single women were eligible to vote; by 2012, the figure was 55.2 million. Their rate of growth was much faster than the other three gender-marital groups. The problem: getting single women to vote is harder than it should be for Democrats, compared with the effort it takes to turn out other groups. The percentage of voting-eligible married women (and men) who cast ballots in general election years is consistently about 10 percentage points higher than the turnout for single women. If that gap narrows to about 5 percentage points by fall 2016, Democrats will have an edge to re-create a winning coalition in states such as North Carolina, Virginia and Florida.

I sent them an email asking how many of Trump supporters are women.

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