Monday, December 07, 2015

Cruz surging in Iowa


The Hill reports on a Monmouth poll that is out today. It shows Ted Cruz surging to the front in Iowa, with less than two months to go before the Iowa cauceye (Rush's term for the Iowa caucuses, because cauceye rhymes with Hawkeye).

Speaking of Rush, when a caller asked him if he thought the result was due to the establishment attacking Trump, Rush pointed out that Trump's numbers have been steady in Iowa for months. Rush added that this is the establishment's worst nightmare, because Ted Cruz is a proven conservative. Rush pointed out that he is not yet endorsing anyone, although it is clear that he likes Cruz, Rubio, and Trump. The two big stories coming out of this poll in Iowa are Ted Cruz's surge and Ben Carson's slide.

Mr. Limbaugh also talked today about Jeb Bush campaign aide Mike Murphy, who has been floating the idea of using Bush's $75 million dollar Superpac money to attack all but Trump, leaving the race as a choice between Trump and Bush. I think that would backfire greatly on Bush, who has been stuck in single digits for many months.

Jonathan Easley reports at The Hill,
Cruz, who has been on a sharp upward trajectory in the polls in recent weeks, takes 24 percent of support in the Hawkeye State, according to a Monmouth University survey released on Monday.

Trump is in second place in the poll, with 19 percent, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), at 17 percent, and Ben Carson, who suffered by far the steepest decline of any candidate, clocking in at 13 percent.

Carson — who has been dogged by foreign policy blunders since last month’s terror attacks in Paris thrust national security to the forefront of the GOP campaign debates — is in free fall.

He held a commanding lead in the Monmouth survey of Iowa from late October, taking 32 percent support over Trump, who at the time was a distant second place with only 18 percent support.

Carson has fallen 19 points since then, while Cruz has gained 14 points and Rubio has picked up seven.

...Still, the bottom-dwellers can take solace in the fact that a strong majority of Iowa Republicans has not settled on a candidate. Only 20 percent said they have made a final decision on who they will vote for, which is essentially unchanged from the same poll in October.

Evangelical voters are now supporting Cruz, helped by Representative Steve King's endorsement of Cruz. Trump leads with independent voters, who have not been a "yuge" voting block historically in the Iowa caucuses.

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