Hybrid War

It doesn't require a nation to wage a hybrid war, and criminal organizations will be drawn to hybrid warfare because it preserves anonymity. That means the first step is to find a sympathetic group on the ground to serve as a proxy. Without one, a group waging hybrid war can't take and seize terrain. (Turf isn't always the objective, but in our scenario it is.)

...Mexican cartels can hire freelance hackers to conduct industrial espionage operations that benefit cartel-friendly businesses by stealing details on bids or digging up trade secrets. Mercenary hackers from anywhere in the world can dig up dirt and blackmail moderate political voices. Websites with opposing views can be hacked and disrupted. Doctored videos and photos can spread discontent, with compromised local media eager to tout them. Politicians not used to hardball are quickly marginalized as the cartel threatens to kill them or their families.

When the Russian special operations forces entered Crimea, they hid among local militia groups. They wore no insignia, but offered weapons, training, and secure communications equipment. These paramilitary units were dubbed "little green men." They were swift, effective and most of all, deniable—since they were not official Russian forces, Putin could have denied knowledge of their activities if necessary. As NATO General Philip Breedlove told a German publication in 2014: "Once the green men are there, a revolution happens quickly."

...The cartel has invested and smuggled military grade equipment to its forces, and they wield shoulder-fired missiles that can shoot down helicopters. A traditional general, interested in causing enemy casualties, would keep this hardware a secret until it was time to surprise an enemy. But in a hybrid war, threats are even better than actions. This is the power of information—a single Youtube video can ground a fleet of the world's most advanced reconnaissance and attack helicopters.

...The tactics and techniques outlined in this hypothetical scenario may seem far-fetched, sure. But people in Crimea and Ukraine just watched more outlandish power grabs succeed even as NATO, Europe, and the United States looked on.

The reality of hybrid warfare is a stark reminder to anyone who thinks the idea of total war has vanished in the glare of the information age. Instead of carpet bombing cities and launching land-grab invasions, the 21st century's version of total war is more subtle, effective, and exportable.

Don't believe it could happen here? Take a look at what's happening with claims of Russian hacking and its impact on the U.S. election. Consider the targets of Anna Chapman and other Russian spy rings in America. Ponder the industrial espionage aimed at defense firms and federal agencies. For all we know, the hybrid war against the United States may have already begun.

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