Monday, January 06, 2020

No more secret war!

Richard Fernandez writes in part in PJ Media,
...Hidden wars allow Western politicians to avoid World War 2-type political choices that might lead to binary outcomes like victory or defeat in favor of a chronic conflict flying just beneath the media radar. That way deal-making can continue with minor interruptions. From this perspective, the really disruptive effect of Donald Trump's decision to kill Iranian IGRC chief Qasem Suleimani was not the kinetic act itself, but in forcing what past administrations and Iran wanted hidden out into the open.

If Trump's goal was to drag the secret four-decade war out of the shadows he has succeeded spectacularly. Suddenly Iran can no longer pick and choose when to engage. Suddenly politicians can no longer indefinitely fight this "forever war" without accountability. Pressure will mount in Congress to vote on what to do about it: win, surrender or initiate a negotiated settlement. If nothing else, it will force them to articulate the alternatives. But they can't hide it under the fold anymore.

Whether intentional or not Trump's actions have eliminated secret war with Iran as an alternative. "President Trump has warned the US is 'targeting' 52 Iranian sites and will strike 'very fast and very hard' if Tehran attacks Americans or US assets." If Iran tries to dive into the murky waters of deniable conflict again, the Donald has 52 charges to bring it to the surface. This puts enormous pressure on Tehran to either open another front against America or negotiate a ceasefire in its secret war against the U.S. As Shadi Hamid of The Atlantic put it, nobody really wants open war, but Iran can stand it least of all.

...Middle East experts know how thinly the Islamic Republic is stretched. There may have been enough resources to launch covert ops against America, but there is way too little to confront it openly.
Read more here.

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