Tuesday, April 05, 2016

Cruz victory tonight bigger than expected

Nate Silver reports at the Five Thirty Eight blog,
Obligatory sanity-check post: I know that the details matter, and that we’re interested to see whether Trump can take a congressional district in Wisconsin despite his poor night statewide. But it bears repeating that he’s having a really bad night and Cruz is having a really good one.

Cruz currently leads Trump by 23 points with about a quarter of Wisconsin reporting. The Upshot expects that lead to eventually narrow to about 15 points. Still, that would be a larger margin of victory than predicted by any poll. And even if Trump ekes out a handful of delegates from congressional districts, he’ll be well behind the 25 delegates we expected him to win Wisconsin a few weeks ago.

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