Trump's "implosion"

How can the GOP establishment stop Donald Trump? Mark Steyn tells Hugh Hewitt,

... What's interesting to me is that the narrative since he declared four months ago has always been that he would implode. And it's clear now that he's not going to implode. If you want to get rid of the Trumpenstein monster you've got to actually be prepared to drive a stake through him and pump silver bullets in him yourself. But what's fascinating, I think, is that at least in polls in my neck of the woods in New Hampshire is that some candidates themselves have imploded – the "real" candidates. They're people who are officially still in the race, but have seem to have just sort of faded away. And I think the message that "he's not them" is actually correct and whoever's going to take him out has got to, in a sense, match him in size. And that's the challenge for any of these guys. This debate you are doing with him next week, Hugh, basically he's saying to CNN, "Look, take me out of this debate and there's two hundred thousand people who are going tune in to watch Jeb Bush debate Jim Gilmore or whoever it is. So if I bring another twenty million people to the table then you've got to play by my rules..." He understands that he's Rodney Dangerfield in Caddyshack and he has turned the quiet staid country club into something else entirely.

So how's that Trump implosion going?

The latest ORC poll has, for the first time, a candidate with more than 30 per cent - Trump, of course, at 32 per cent, with Ben Carson in second place at 19 per cent. Excepting Carly Fiorina's three per cent, that leaves all 14 candidates of the professional political class with 46 per cent between them.

In the same poll three months ago, Trump had 12 per cent. Two months ago, he had 18 per cent. One month ago, he had 24 per cent. That's not a comet who blazes across the sky and then flames out. That's a steady methodical climb that, if anything, has slightly accelerated in recent weeks. Experts keep assuring us that Trump is a turn-off to millions of people and has a ceiling of support. Yet the ceiling keeps getting higher. The first candidate from the Blowhard-American community or the Buffoon-American community or whatever sneer Kevin Williamson and George Will are currently using keeps shattering that ol' glass ceiling and moving up.

Yet there was Charles Krauthammer on the telly last night using the same line he's been using for months - okay, Trump's the frontrunner, and sure, 12 18 24 32 per cent looks impressive in a 17-man race. But wait'll the field narrows down to just two or three candidates...

Gotcha. So it'll be Trump 32 per cent, Bush 68? Are you sure about that?

As I said to Hugh, there has certainly been an implosion over the last few months - but it's not Trump's. From that ORC poll:

Bush in June: 17 per cent;
Bush in September: 9 per cent.

Okay, but what about that fellow all the experts assured us won the first debate?

Rubio in June: 7 per cent;
Rubio in September: 3 per cent.

Oh, and let's not forget the other guy we were told had an impressive first debate, with his thoughtful invocation of his faith balanced with his inclusive answer on same-sex marriage:

Kasich in June: 3 per cent;
Kasich in September 2 per cent.

Anybody else?

Paul in June: 8 per cent;
Paul in September: 3 per cent.

Christie in June: 3 per cent;
Christie in September: 2 per cent.

Perry in June: 4 per cent;
Perry in September: an asterisk.

[UPDATE: Iowa implosions:

Walker in July: First place, 18 per cent;
Walker in September: Tenth place, 3 per cent.]

[UPPERDATE: Perry's out.]

There's certainly a lot of imploding around at the moment ...but not at the Trump end. The only "professional politician" to have gone up in the last three months is Senator Ted Cruz (fourth-placed at 7 per cent), who's basically running on a pay-no-attention-to-that-word-beginning-with-'s'-in-front-of-my-name-I-hate-the-GOP-as-much-as-you-do platform. So Trump, Carson, Fiorina and Cruz account for 61 per cent, and the 13 "mainstream" "electable" guys mop up what's left.

...John Kasich was on TV last night and Sean Hannity asked him how many of these belligerent young Muslim men posing as "fleeing refugees" America should take, and he blathered on a bit about our good hearts and putting safeguards in place to ensure that fellows with ISIS membership cards would be asked to resign first and a lot of other twaddle. And then he said limply something like, "Your families and mine both came here as immigrants, Sean."

That's it? Sentimentalist rosy-hued Ellis Island twaddle as the Middle East (here's that word again) implodes and ISIS games the system? And Trump's supposed to be the moron?

Waiting for Trump to implode won't work. If the donor class don't want him as the nominee, they're gonna have to put their chips on someone capable of blowing him up.

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